Who is likely to govern Spain?

An English-language tracker of the Spanish polls and campaign, and what each possible result could mean for Gibraltar.

Possible outcomes

• PP and Vox majority: 96%
• No clear majority: 2%
• Investiture parties majority: 2%

What the election could mean for Gibraltar

Where the parties and Gibraltar stand

• What has the PP said about the Gibraltar treaty?
• What has the PSOE said about the Gibraltar treaty?
• What has Vox said about the Gibraltar treaty?
• What has Sumar said about the Gibraltar treaty?
• What has the Gibraltar Government said about the Spanish election?

What a new government could do

• Could a new Spanish government cancel the UK–EU treaty on Gibraltar?
• Does the Spanish Parliament have to vote on the Gibraltar treaty?
• What does the PP mean by tax equalisation between Gibraltar and the Campo?

Timing and the frontier

• Does the Spanish election affect the European Parliament's vote on the Gibraltar treaty?
• What can Spain's caretaker government do on Gibraltar before a new government is formed?
• Will the Gibraltar frontier change after the Spanish election?

More questions

• How accurate were the polls at the last Spanish general election?

How this is calculated

The meter is calculated from the seat projections published by Spanish pollsters. It takes the most recent poll from each pollster in the last 21 days, weights each by how recent it is and its sample size, and averages the seats for each party. It then simulates 10,000 elections, allowing for the differences between pollsters and the possibility that all of them are wrong, and counts how often each outcome occurs. The investiture parties are those whose deputies voted for Pedro Sánchez's investiture in November 2023; some of them, including Junts, have since distanced themselves from the PSOE. This is a summary of published polling, not a forecast.

Polls commissioned by or carried out for a political party are left out of both the poll table and the calculation. Polls published without a seat projection, such as the CIS barometer, appear in the table but are not used in the calculation. The CIS, Spain's public research institute, is included in the table because it is a state body rather than a party.

Gibraltar Bites is independent and takes no position on the Spanish general election.